PRLog (Press Release) – Jun 30, 2011 – This latest BMI Thailand Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for 3.7% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 3.3% of supply. Regional oil use of 20.6mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 26.4mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to rise to around 29.6mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was around 7.6mn b/d in 2001 and averaged an estimated 8.0mn b/d in 2010. It is set to increase to 8.2mn b/d by 2015. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was importing an average 12.99mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 18.37mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 21.3mn b/d by 2015. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2015 the only net exporter will be Malays garbage compactor review ia.
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In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region consumed around 511.5bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 653.9bcm is targeted for 2015. Production of an estimated 405.8bcm in 2010 should reach 556.7bcm in 2015, implying net imports falling from around 105.7bcm to 97.2bcm. Thailand's estimated share of gas consumption in 2010 was 8.0%, while its share of production is 7.9%. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 7.7%, with the country accounting for 3.8% of supply.
Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.6%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in both the US and eurozone should be marginally higher than last year, while Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan's growth will slump to 0.7% as a result of the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. Our oil price forecast for 2011 is US$98.90/bbl for the OPEC Basket, giving Brent at US$103/bbl and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at US$92.30, although these differentials are subject to change.
Thai real GDP growth stood at 7.8% in 2010, and we forecast an average annual increase of 4.7% in 2010-2015. State-controlled PTTEP and international oil company (IOC) partners are working hard to secure domestic oil and gas volumes, with only limited success in terms of crude oil. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 273,000b/d by 2015, although the country is expected to have pumped 328,000b/d in 2010. We expect consumption to increase by up to 2% per annum in 2010-2015, implying demand of 1.08mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be about 800,000b/d by 2015. End-period gas consumption of an estimated 50.1bcm outstrips likely supply of 33.0bcm.
We are forecasting a 37% reduction in Thai oil production between 2010 and 2020, with crude volumes falling steadily to 206,000b/d in 2020. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 24.35%, with growth slowing to less than 2.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 1.2mn b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated 32bcm in 2010 to a peak of 34bcm in 2011-2013, before slipping to 28bcm by 2020. With demand growth of 57.4%, this will require imports to rise to nearly 35bcm by the end of the forecast period. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts, which provide regional and country-specific projections, can be found at the back of this report.
Thailand holds 12th place, above South Korea and Hong Kong, in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) league table. It holds 10th place, behind China and Indonesia, in BMI's updated upstream Business Environment ratings, reflecting a modest resource position, moderate gas growth outlook and an IOC-friendly competitive environment. Thailand ranks eighth in BMI's downstream Business Environment ratings, reflecting its above-average gas demand and relatively low level of retail site intensity. It is just one point below Indonesia and Australia in the league table, but may struggle to overtake them.
Partial Table of Contents:
SWOT Analysis - Thailand Political SWOT - Thailand Economic SWOT - Thailand Business Environment SWOT - Thailand Energy Market Overview Regional Energy Market Overview - Oil Supply And Demand - Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d) - Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d) - Oil: Downstream - Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) - Gas Supply And Demand - Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm) - Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm) - Liquefied Natural Gas - Table: Asia Pacific LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) Business Environment Ratings - Asia Pacific Region - Composite Scores - Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating - Upstream Scores - Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating - Thailand Upstream Rating - Overview - Thailand Upstream Rating - Rewards - Thailand Upstream Rating - Risks - Downstream Scores - Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating - Th trash bins ailand Downstream Rating - Overview - Thailand Downstream Rating - Rewards - Thailand Downstream Rating - Risks Business Environment - Legal Framework - Infrastructure - Labour Force - Foreign Investment Policy - Tax Regime - Security Risk Industry Forecast Scenario - Oil And Gas Reserves - Oil Supply And Demand - Gas Supply And Demand& helicop ter technology #13; - LNG - Refining And Oil Products Trade - Revenues/Import Costs - Table: Thailand Oil And Gas - Historical Data And Forecasts - Other Energy - Table: Thailand Other Energy - Historical Data And Forecasts - Key Risks To Forecast Scenario - Long-term Energy Outlook Oil And Gas Infrastructure - Oil Refineries - Table: Refineries In Thailand - Service Stations - Oil Storage Facilities - Oil Terminals/Ports - Oil Pipelines - LNG Terminals - Gas Pipelines - Gas Processing Plants Macroeconomic Outlook - Table: Thailand - Economic Activity; 2006-2015 Competitive Landscape - Executive Summary - Table: Key Players - Thailand Oil And Gas Sector - Overview/State Role - Licensing And Regulation - Government Policy - Licensing Rounds - International Energy Relations -
Full Table of Contents is available at: -- http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=171 ...
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