bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$82.25, Brent at US$82.46/bbl, Urals delivering around US$81.21 and the Dubai average being US$80.74/bbl. Our central assumption for 201 rc helicopter market place 2 is an OPEC price averaging US$85.00/bbl, delivering WTI at approximately US$87.40 and Brent at US$87.60/bbl. From 2013 onwards, we are using an average OPEC price of US$90.00/bbl. For the whole of 2010, the BMI assumption for the global gasoline price is an average US$87.49/bbl, representing a y-o-y rise of 24.7%. The global gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$88.00/bbl, probably peaking in December 2010 at more than US$95/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 27.6% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$89.500/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$77.65/bbl, up almost 31% from the previous year's level. Slovenian real GDP is assumed by BMI to have risen by 1.8% in 2010. We are forecasting average annual growth of 2.7% in 2010-2015. Beyond the expected weakness of 2009/2010, oil consumption growth is forecast at an annual rate of 3%, reaching 63,000b/d by 2015. Gas consumption will have reached an estimated 1.0bcm in 2010, with up to 0.4bcm being produced from domestic sources. Demand is expected to have reached 1.4bcm by 2015, with domestic production potentially down to 0.1bcm and imports totalling 1.3bcm. Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Slovenian oil consumption of 37.7%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 53,000b/d to 73,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Gas consumption is expected to climb from an estimated 1.0bcm to 1.8bcm by 2020, met largely by imports of 1.7bcm. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. Slovenia takes 15th and last place, behind Slovakia, in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It occupies 15th and last place in BMI's updated upstream Business Env manual trash compactor ironment ratings, thanks to its extremely limited hydrocarbons resources. Its score is six points below that of nearest rival, Ukraine, but the growth outlook for oil and gas is unimpressive and comes from an exceptionally low base. Country risk factors work in Slovenia's favour, but there is little chance of an improvement capable of taking it past the other regional laggards. Slovenia is near the bottom of the league table in BMI's updated downstream Business Environment ratings, sharing 11th place with Slovakia, Bulgaria and Uzbekistan. There are no particularly high scores and progress further up the rankings seems unlikely over the medium term. There are poor scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand, population and nominal GDP.
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